Control States saw spirits case sales grow 4% in November over like year-earlier sales in November, a modest growth rate opposite a weak comp (2.8%) but propped up by calendar anomalies, the National Alcoholic Beverage Control Association reports.
Alabama (7.6%), Iowa (14.1%), Montgomery County Maryland (17.6%), Maine (5.0%), Mississippi (24.7%), North Carolina (6.8%), Ohio (7.2%), Oregon (3.5%), Utah (5.5%), and West Virginia (7.8%) reported monthly growth rates for November exceeding their 12-month trends. The growth rates for Idaho (1.1%), Michigan (-2.7%), Montana (7.5%), New Hampshire (-5.3%), Pennsylvania (3.6%), Virginia (-2.6%), Vermont (1.1%), and Wyoming (-0.1%) fell short of their 12-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 4.6%, is flat with October’s reported 4.5%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 4.6% year-to-date compared to 8.1% a year ago.
November’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the fourth highest recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century and tied with August 2021 and October 2021. Three-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (5.3, 5.3, 5.5%, 5.3%, 5.4%, 5.6%) are higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (4.5, 4.6%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 3.5%).
The 21-year Control State CAGR of 3.1% suggests that the last six 3-year growth periods are above average. During October, the 3-year CAGR, a long-term growth rate, and the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate, a short-term growth rate, crossed; during October and November the 3-year CAGR was greater than the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate for the first time in 35 months. Sales are generally more brisk during periods when short term rates exceed long term rates.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 8.3% during November while trending at 9.9% during the past 12 months. Iowa (19.1%), Montgomery County Maryland (21.8%), Maine (10.9%), Mississippi (27.9%), Montana (14.3%), North Carolina (14.5%), Ohio (13.7%), Oregon (10.2%), Vermont (7.1%), and West Virginia (15.2%) reported monthly growth rates for November exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama (9.3%), Idaho (6.5%), Michigan (-0.3%), New Hampshire (0.4%), Pennsylvania (7.2%), Utah (7.3%), Virginia (1.1%), and Wyoming (2.0%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 9.9% year-to-date compared to 13.8% last November.
Price/Mix for November is 4.3%, up from October’s reported 3.5%.
Premiumization continues to sustain Price/Mix values for the control states at levels above those calculated pre-Covid (2.3%). During November, the 12-month growth rates for Ultra-Premium, Super-Premium, Premium, and Value spirits products were 19%, 12%, 4%, and -3%, respectively.
November’s median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set retail price points continued to be reported at historically high levels; the median price was $25.04, and the weighted average price was $18.06. During 2020’s November these prices were $24.96 and $17.20, respectively.
Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was November’s fastest growing category with 35.5% reported and a 12-month trend of 38.8%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 30.3% during November and 22.7% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Gin (2.8% during November, -0.3% 12-month trend), Tequila (30.3%, 22.7%), and Vodka (1.5%, 0.5%) reported growth rates exceeding their 12-month trends, while those reported for Brandy/Cognac (-12.8%, -3.6%), Canadian Whiskey (0.5%, 1.1%), Cocktails (35.5%, 38.8%), Cordials (9.9%, 11.1%), Domestic Whiskey (1.5%, 4.8%), Irish Whiskey(10.1%, 14.0%), Rum(0.2%, 0.7%), and Scotch(-1.1%, 1.5%) fell short.
November’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was down 6%. Pennsylvania (reporting -10.6% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-2.4%), Mississippi (20.1%), Utah (-2.2%), Montgomery County Maryland (2.6%), and Wyoming (-4.8%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-12-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –2.6%, down from October’s reported -1.8%.
