Red Wine Still Dominates Retail, Hard Seltzer Puts Cider at Risk: Drizly
Drawing data from its 1,400 retail partners, Drizly said it expects red wine to be one of the strongest contenders for sales this fall. “Each year, we see a steady increase in red wine sales and share of category, starting in late August and continuing through the winter months. In 2018, we saw a 5% increase in share of red wine sales from September to October and another 3% jump from October to November,” says Liz Paquette, Drizly’s head of consumer insights.
Year-over-year, share of cider sales through the summer have decreased by a little over 1 percentage point, from 6.11% in July of 2018 to 4.97% in July of 2019, she says, adding:
“We attribute this to the explosive growth in the hard seltzer category, which grew from 6.26% share of the category in July of 2018 to a whopping 17.48% share of sales in the category in July of 2019, and with continued growth into August.
“We anticipate the hard seltzer category will continue to dominate through September, at which time sales will start to taper off as the seasons change. While we may not see a year-over-year increase in sales due to this, cider is a fall classic and we expect sales to climb leading into fall up through October, when they generally peak. “We expect original craft cider flavors will still lead category sales this fall, even though they are sharing the market with newer more innovative flavors like rosé and pumpkin cider. These newer cider flavors are gaining popularity on Drizly, but sales growth is tempered by narrower retail distribution,” Paquette said.
Paquette says she anticipates both Bourbon and Scotch Whiskey to increase in total share of the liquor category from late August through December, when those sales typically peak.
Whiskey blends and Japanese Whiskey saw sales increases in H1 of this year and with these being great gifts for the upcoming holiday season, Drizly doesn’t expect that momentum to slow any time soon.
As competition rises in the craft distilling space, with more craft and micro distilleries opening doors each month, barrel finishes have become incredibility popular this year and retailers are having to decide between putting core expressions or unique finished bottles on shelves, or if it’s worth it to make room for both.
The beer category has been overtaken by Hard Seltzer throughout the summer months. Similarly, as with cider, Paquette said Drizly expects some of the balance to shift back as the weather cools and customers start craving something a little heartier.
Lagers, IPAs and witbiers will continue to dominate. “Though we’ve seen an increased interest in sour ales in the summer months, we expect those to step aside to make way for other categories as the temperatures chill,” she said, adding:
“As expected with fall, heavy and darker beers will increase in popularity once again, with interest shifting from fruit beers, shandies, hard lemonades and hard iced teas to seasonal favorites, stouts, Belgian-style ales and porters.