That shouldn’t be a surprise, of course, because a year ago many on-premise outlets were closed as part of an effort to “stop the spread” of Covid. At the time, the data was just starting to come in that it wasn’t necessary to close the economy. All that was needed was rigorous mask enforcing, massive testing of people who showed no symptoms (it later developed asymptomatic people were the primary way Covid was being spread), and contact tracing followed by quarantining those who had the disease or who had been in contact with those who had the disease.
Nonetheless, CGA’s latest sales data shows how On Premise is rebounding. Velocity in outlets currently trading is +155% higher than the same time last year in the week to May 15.
The comparable week last year (to May 16 2020), while in a light recovery compared to the height of restrictions, was still one of the worst periods of On Premise declines. Across all states, value velocity remains strongly positive compared to last year and comparable to, if not ahead of, velocities in 2019, CGA says. Here’s CGA’z data for the U.S. and for five large states:.
Total U.S.
- Average outlet $ sales (velocity) trends are positive (+12%) in the latest week (May 15 v May 8) as a result of strong Mother’s Day performances. This is the fourth consecutive week of growth trends across the US.
- All key states experienced a strong trends for Mother’s Day (Sunday May 9), and Southern States (Texas & California) also observed an increase in value velocity on Cinco de Mayo (Wednesday May 5).
- 100% of states have Restaurants open indoors and 98% of states have Bars open indoors, with some capacity measures in place.
Florida
- Week on week trends in Florida are positive in all markets, with Orlando (+13%) and Tampa (+10%) leading the way
- Sales velocity is now +138% year-over-year (comparing the same week one year prior)
- Sales velocity is now +8% vs May 8, 2021
Illinois
- Performance in Illinois, while strong in Chicago (+13%), is driven by performance outside of the city (+18%), resulting in the state experiencing week on week growth of +16%.
- Sales velocity is now +210% year-over-year (comparing the same week one year prior)
- Sales velocity is now +16% vs May 8, 2021
California
- California experiences the strongest velocity trend vs last year (+253%) due to tighter restrictions at the time. Trends in the latest week are led by key city performance, with San Francisco (+19%), Los Angeles (+16%) and San Diego (+11%) all experiencing double digit growth vs the previous week.
- Sales velocity is now +253% year-over-year (comparing the same week one year prior)
- Sales velocity is now +11% vs May 8, 2021
New York
- New York is the best performing state vs last week, with growth of +17% experienced across the state, with NYC up +17% and the rest of the state up +16%
- Sales velocity is now +219% year-over-year (comparing the same week one year prior)
- Sales velocity is now +17% vs May 8, 2021
Texas
- Positive trends are experienced across the whole of Texas (+13%) with Houston (+18%), Dallas (+17%) and Austin (+15%) all having strong week on week performances
- Sales velocity is now +114% year-over-year (comparing the same week one year prior)
- Sales velocity is now +13% vs May 8, 2021
Matthew Crompton, CGA’s Client Solutions Director, Americas said: “The channel is experiencing positive movement as re-openings are continuing at pace. Our BeverageTrak dataset is now showing four weeks of consecutive week-on-week growth and recent events celebrated in the On Premise was a great boost. “The summer months pose an exciting opportunity and with many festivals also announcing their line-ups, and capacities in stadiums increasing, consumers are eager to continue visiting the On Premise. “There is a definite need to understand the behaviors and need states of the consumers planning to visit these venues in the coming months and the importance of tailoring the drinks offer correctly to capture this expected demand.”
