What We’re Reading —

Can Artificial Intelligence Curb Problem Drinking?

For those looking to change their relationship with alcohol, technology serves as a discreet wingman. (WSJ Magazine)

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Expect Fewer Big Christmas Parties This Year: Drizly

Less than half of respondents surveyed by Drizly in June said they plan to celebrate the holidays the same way they did in 2019. The majority said their holiday gatherings will resemble those of 2020.

“We’re going to see a mix of pre-pandemic and during-pandemic behaviors, with gathering types ranging from smaller or even virtual events to bigger celebrations,” says Liz Paquette, Drizly’s head of consumer insights. “I think the mantra for this coming OND is the same as it has been for this past year — prepare for the unexpected and pivot as necessary.”

Gifting Will Continue to Go Online

Online gifting has seen significant growth on Drizly, with share surging from 9% in December 2019 to 20% in December 2020.

The average unit value for gift orders is about 72% higher than the standard order, and most gifts are sent by buyers who live outside of the store’s local market. “This is an awesome opportunity to drive valuable sales online,” says Paquette. It also gives retailers a chance to acquire new customers that wouldn’t normally shop in their stores as well as introduces them to new local shoppers.

Peter Willcock, SVP-brand development for Palm Bay International, sees particular potential for gift sets. With both consumers and retailers recognizing the value-add of such offerings, he says, “Gift sets need to be intelligently conceived by marketers to ensure these solutions deliver above and beyond the regular package.”

Tequila and Whiskey Will Be Stars 

Tequila accounts for about 25% of the overall liquor category on Drizly and is likely to continue gaining share. Led by growth in the reposado and añejo categories, tequila’s average unit price has increased 23% over 2020.

“Our consumers like to enjoy tequila during celebratory moments,” says Lander Otegui, SVP-marketing at Proximo Spirits. “This is especially true during the holidays, a time when many are willing to spend more on premium offerings.”

The company is responding by introducing new high-end products, such as Jose Cuervo Tradicional Añejo, aged in whiskey barrels, and the small-batch Reserva de la Familia Reposado.

In the whiskey category, bourbon’s share has remained flat year-over-year while smaller categories such as Scotch, Japanese whisky, and rye have seen significant gains in 2021. “These are going to be ones to watch this holiday season,” says Paquette. “Whiskey is our usual dominator for the holiday season and we’re expecting it to continue to hold strong.”

Combined with whiskey, the tequila category currently accounts for a 35 percent share of gift orders on Drizly.

While it can be difficult for retailers to get sought-after tequila and whiskey products, says Gold, stores can attract holiday business through barrel aging programs. “We don’t have 50 cases of Don Julio 1942 sitting around,” he says, “but I do have bottles of Corazon done in Blanton’s barrels that are unique from anything else that’s out there.”

RTDs Will Be a Holiday Thing

In August 2021, hard seltzer’s sales share on Drizly declined 12 percent year-over-year while share for spirits-based, ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails grew 85 percent.

“RTDs have been a category to watch this year, and we expect this to persist through the holiday season,” says Paquette. “Cocktail-making has been a big trend over the pandemic, but OND is typically a big time of year for making cocktails at home. With the greater innovation in this category, diversification in the types of cocktails being offered, and the quality in his format, this could potentially be seen as a replacement for consumers for some secondary cocktail ingredients.”

Customers Will Splurge on Champagne 

The Champagne category saw a huge spike in 2021 and is currently sitting at No. 3 among Drizly’s top wine categories. Growth was largely driven by premiumization and gifting. The average unit price to date has increased about 24% year-over-year and gift orders account for 53% of Champagne sales in 2021 compared to 40% in 2020.

“Off-premise holiday sales for Champagne will be very strong this year, there is no doubt about it,” says Xavier Barlier, the SVP-marketing and communications at Maisons Marques & Domaines USA. “People will celebrate in their homes or at the homes of their friends, and in the U.S., Champagne is the wine for celebration.”

Barlier expects to see a sales increase this holiday season over the same period in 2020, with luxury products such as Cristal, Dom Perignon, and Krug in demand. He also forecasts that non-vintage sparkling wines, vintage Champagnes, and grower Champagnes will do well this OND.

“The more frustrated we get with Covid and Delta, and the more we want to compensate,” he says. “I think this year we’re going to splurge.”

However, as supply shortages continue for many of the category’s most popular brands, retailers may face challenges in meeting demand.

“I try to taste as many things as I can and stock things that I like,” says Gold. “If people can’t find Veuve or Moët, they will move to something else. We’re seeing a lot more esoteric things getting sold in person and online.”

Kerkian is also looking to fill the gap. “Veuve Clicquot, Moët & Chandon, and Dom have all been extremely hard to come by this year,” he says, “so it will be interesting to see where customers go if these continue to be unavailable.” He predicts that shoppers will go for a combination of lesser-known brands and domestic sparkling wines, along with premium white wines getting a boost.

“We’re keeping an eye out for those popular Champagne brands,” he says, “and if any come back in stock on the regular, we are going to jump on whatever we can get.”

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More Than 10 Million Barrels of Bourbon Aging in Kentucky Distillery Warehouses

For the first time in the modern era of American whiskey, Kentucky has 10 million barrels of Bourbon aging in distillery warehouses across the Commonwealth, the Kentucky Distillers’ Association said.
Kentucky’s distilling industry also set new production records for the number of Bourbon barrels filled in a single year – nearly 2.5 million – and for the total number of all aging barrels including other spirits such as brandy, at nearly 11 million. These numbers are for calendar year 2020.
“Kentucky’s signature Bourbon industry continues to invest in our Commonwealth at unprecedented levels, despite global pandemic disruptions, exorbitant taxes and ongoing trade wars,” said Eric Gregory, President of the Kentucky Distillers’ Association. “This is truly a historic and landmark record.”
But that milestone comes with a cost, Gregory said. Distillers will pay a record $33 million in aging barrel taxes in 2021. Kentucky remains the only place in the world that taxes aging barrels of spirits as part of the production process, a discriminatory tax that hampers growth and jeopardizes the state’s ability to attract new distillers.
Barrel taxes have catapulted 140% in the last 10 years alone, Gregory said.
“The Bourbon industry is investing more than $5 billion in this state to increase production, build innovative tourism centers and create thousands of new jobs,” he said. “But punitive barrel taxes are punishing this growth and harming our chances to land new distilleries.
“It’s time for the legislature to take action and make barrel taxes refundable or transferable, which will further incentivize distilling investment in the Commonwealth. Kentucky should not have a tax structure that penalizes growth and investment on any manufacturer.”
Even though the Kentucky legislature passed a corporate income tax credit in 2014 to offset barrel taxes, the escalating number of barrels – and therefore taxes – far outpaces the amount of credit that distillers can take, Gregory said. Some distillers now only realize 30% of the credit.
The new production numbers are based on inventories reported as of Jan. 1, 2021, submitted to the Kentucky Department of Revenue for tax purposes and includes all distilling companies in Kentucky, the vast majority of which are KDA member distilleries.
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Control States’ Case Sales Up 2.2% in August

During August nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 2.2%, a perfunctory growth rate unaffected by an innocuous comp (1.8%), over same period sales last year, the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association reports.

Montgomery County, Maryland (11.1%), Maine (11.3%), Utah (5.4%), and Vermont (3.5%) reported monthly growth rates for August exceeding their 12-month trends.

Growth rates for Alabama (3.2%), Iowa (4.3%), Idaho (-1.3%), Michigan (-2.9%), Mississippi (-3.6%), Montana (8.5%), North Carolina (0.6%), New Hampshire (-2.1%), Ohio (2.2%), Oregon (-0.4%), Pennsylvania (10.1%), Virginia (0.6%), West Virginia (0.1%), and Wyoming (-1.7%) fell short of their 12-month trends. Control state rolling-12-month-volume growth, 6.7%, was flat with July’s reported 6.7%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 5.5% year-to-date compared to 6.9% a year ago.

August’s three-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the third highest recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. Three-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods are strikingly higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts. The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% demonstrates that the last six three-year growth periods are significantly above the average.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 4.9% during August while trending at 12.9% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland (12.2%), Maine (15.0%), and Utah (10.0%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama (3.7%), Iowa (8.0%), Idaho (2.8%), Michigan (-0.2%), Mississipp i(-1.2%), Montana (10.5%), North Carolina (6%), New Hampshire (0.5%), Ohio (5%), Oregon (4.1%), Pennsylvania (10.2%), Vermont (7.4%), Virginia (5.3%), West Virginia (1.9%), and Wyoming (-1.4%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 11.6% year-to-date compared to 12.0% last August.

Premiumization continues to drive Price/Mix in the control states. During August 2021, the median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set the retail price point continued to be reported at historically high levels. During August, the median price was $24.99, and the weighted average price was $17.40. During last year’s August, these prices were $24.71 and $16.92, respectively.

Price/Mix for August is 2.7%, down from July’s reported 3.2%.

Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was August’s fastest growing category with 48.6% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.5%. Tequila, with 8% share, grew at 14.1% during August and 24.9% during the past twelve months. Irish Whiskey, with 2% share, grew during August at 12.8% and 14.8% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -0.1% and 1.7%, respectively.

Cocktails (48.6 during August%, 38.5% twelve-month trend) grew at a rate above its twelve-month trend, while Brandy/Cognac (-9.4%, 5.1%), Canadian Whiskey (-3.2%, 3.6%), Cordials (5.5%, 12.5%), Domestic Whiskey (1.9%, 8.2%), Gin (-2.2%, 1.1%), Irish Whiskey (12.8%, 14.8%), Rum (-2.0%, 2.3%), Scotch (-2.7%, 3.4%), Tequila (14.1%, 24.9%), and Vodka (-0.1%, 1.7%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

August’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -4.0%. Pennsylvania (reporting -3.7% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-4.0%), Mississippi (-10.8%), Utah (1.0%), Montgomery County Maryland (-2.5%), and Wyoming (-3.9%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 0.3%, flat with July’s reported 0.3%.

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Purser: Beer Distributors Proved Their Value During Covid

Despite challenges to the supply chain and from the virus, beer distributors are shining like never before,” Craig Purser, president, National Beer Wholesalers Association, told the group’s 84th annual convention. 

With news stories suggesting supply chain issues will disrupt Christmas, Purser said that “when other products face distribution issues, you get through. You make changes, operate safely and give Americans a sense of normalcy in a very abnormal time. You help launch new products even without the onpremise channel, something everyone thought was the exclusive way to introduce innovations.”  

These may be the best of times for beer wholesalers, he suggested.

“In recent years we’ve seen a staggering number of new products: new seltzers,
new spirits and winebased products, new ready to drink cocktails, low alcohol beers,
no alcohol beers, betterforyou beverages. . . . Canned spirits from beer companies, canned cocktails from wine companies, spirits from wine companies, wines offered by beer companies and lowproof spirits products all rounding out a load headed from your warehouse to your retailer’s shelves.

“Recently, global soft drink makers have announced their interest in entering the alcohol beverage space. And even a fastfood retailer is making a hard seltzer,” Purser said, adding;

“And most of these manufacturers want to be on your truck.”

“The spirits industry wants what you’ve got too,” he said, explaining that “innovation isn’t limited to seltzers as a combination of existing spirits producers and new market entrants are cashing in on seltzer’s success with the creation of readytodrink cocktails.

“They want access to your trucks, but more importantly, they want access to your retailers’ shelves and cold box.” 

That’s why Purser believes “this may be the most expansive time in our industry.”  And NBWA has expanded it’s focus, he said.  “We have been working to protect the equity in ALL beverages that you distribute.

“We’ve offered legal guidance related to new contracts and distribution agreements for wine and spirits and non-alcohol products. W
e’ve filed Amicus Briefs in cases where suppliers have unfairly terminated distributors…. 
And we’ve lobbied Congress and the FDA regarding emerging beverages containing CBD.”

With changes in the industry, NBWA has changed its logo to NBWA: America’s Beer AND Beverage Distributors.  The new moniker, Purser said,  “reflects who we are, where we’ve been and where we’re going.”

The NBWA CEO noted that the spirits industry is “cheering on” some in Congress “seeking to advance illconceived policies and preempt state alcohol laws.”  Spirits is seeking tax equivalence at the state and federal level.  Spirits wants “to go around their distributor customers and their retail partners,” pursuing a direct-to-consumer agenda.

But Purser did not stop his criticism with the Ditilled Spirits Council of the U.S.  “We were disappointed but not surprised to see the Brewers
Association weigh in with an 11th hour, noholdsbarred criticism of the state regulatory system,” he said, adding:

This is the height of irony because, in many states, craft brewers enjoy privileges that others do not, including direct-to-consumer sales and self-distribution. Small brewers also enjoy lower excise tax rates. It is also worth noting that some of the states with the strongest fair competition or franchise
laws are also the states with the highest number of breweries per capita.”

Returning to a recurrent concern at NBWA conventions over the years, Purser noted that several suppliers canceled long-term distributor contracts.  “These actions greatly reinforce the validity and need for fair dealing laws that keep the industry competitive and allow distributors to continue to take on new products and build new brands,” he said. 

 

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NBWA’s Human Trafficking Initiative Trains 26,000 to Spot Abuse

National Beer Wholesalers Association‘s Distributors Against Human Trafficking initiative has just trained it’s 26,000th distributor employee to “spot signs of this terrible and pervasive crime,” NBWA Chairman Pat Blach of Blach Distributing told attendees at NBWA’s 84th annual convention and trade show.

We have been overwhelmed by the incredible response,” he said.  “We initially set out to train 10,000 employees by the end of 2021, yet by April, we had already exceeded that goal. So, we raised our goal again to training 25,000 employees by the end of the year.  I’m proud to say that we’ve just passed our goal with more than 26,000 distributors trained!”

The Beer Across America survey, which NBWA conducts with the Beer Institute, found that the total beer industry, from brewers to retailers, generates more than 2.2 million jobs, providing more than $103 billion in wages and benefits to American workers and families, he said.

And he noted that the NBWA Beer Purchasers’ Index was the first to alert distributors to problems in the seltzer market as it reported the largest single drop ever in the FMB/seltzer index.

To remind retailers of beer’s importance, NBWA has developed its Beer First toolkit that helps distributors demonstrate that beer is a valuable category that “brings consumers to their outlets and generates lift, velocity and profits.”

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