One month doesn’t make a trend. But National Beer Wholesaler Association‘s Beer Purchasers Index for November finds orders placed with suppliers are mostly stable: The 2018 index for November is at 48.2, an improvement from November 2017’s 47.7 and October’s 48.3. This could suggest that beer is reaching a bottom, which would be good news for beer marketers.
Not surprisingly, the index continues to show trading up continues. That’s good news for those in the higher-end segments, bad news for those in the economy and popular-priced premium categories.
Imports showed a significant jump: to 69.4 from 60.6 a year ago. Craft fell to 58.9 from 66.9 a year earlier, but NBWA notes the craft index is back above 50, indicating an expansion in craft beer orders “just not as strong as last year.”
Premium lights, premium regulars and below premiums all posted lower readings compared to the same month last year. These segments continue to lack any significant signs of recovery.
The flavored malt beverage/progressive adult beverage (FMB/PAB) segment continues to show expansion with a 62.7 index reading. The November reading is significantly higher than last year’s 36.9 reading and continues to post a string of index readings above 60 in 2018.
The cider segment also continues to expand with November 2018 posting a 57.7 index up from a 24.2 in 2017. This is the segment’s second monthly reading above 50 for 2018.
The “At Risk” inventory measures for total beer jumped to 53.1 for November. This marks the second time in six months that distributors reported more inventory at risk of going out of code in the next three days. This was driven primarily by slower than expected sales in craft, premium lights and premium regular segments.
The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases across different segments and compares them to previous years. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.