But ISWR says that decline to a total of 27.6 billion cases represents a one-year blip. ISWR projects total alcohol consumption will steadily increase over the next five years, to 28.5 billion cases in 2023. ISWR expects the retail value of beer, wine and spirits to be 7% higher in 2023 from $1 trillion in 2018.
Gin was the leading growth category in 2018, gaining 8.3% from a year earlier. It’s expected to reach 88 million cases by 2023. Pink gin was the growth driver.
The global whisky category increased 7% last year, driven largely by a strong Indian economy. The U.S. and Japan posted 5% and 8% growth, respectively. ISWR forecasts whiskey to growth 5.7% CAGR by 2024 to almost 581 million cases.
Premixed cocktails, long drinks and flavored alcohol beverages grew 5% globally last year.
While distilled spirits have been growing nicely in the U.S., globally vodka, liqueurs and cane spirits are in decline. Vodka’s volume fell 2.6%. The category is expected to lose volume at 1.7% a year through 2023. Flavored spirits will continue slipping through this year but will rebound slightly next year, ISWR estimated.
Wine consumption in China, Italy, Frank, Germany and Spain declined, resulting in a 1.6% drop in volume. But price increases enable retail value to rise. “The one bright spot in wine volume is the sparkling wine category, which is expected to show a five-year CAGR of 1.17% 2018-2023, driven in large part by prosecco.
Low alcohol and no alcohol brands are showing significant growth in key markets, ISWR said, “as consumers increasingly seek better-for-you products and explore ways to reduce their alcohol intake. No alcohol beer is expected to grow 8.9% CAGR 2018-2023 and low-alcohol beer 2.8%. No alcohol still wine is forecasted to grow 13.5% and low-alcohol still wine 5.6%. No alcohol mixed drinks are expected to grow 8.6%.