“It may be time to sound the alarm for wine as category depletions for the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2019 are down 2.2%. The negative trends are consistent across category, varietal, and trade channel. It would appear consumers are choosing spirits and hard seltzers, which are booming, over wine,” says Dale Stratton, an analyst for SipSource.
SipSource is a joint venture between Nielsen Co., Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, VIP, the data technology company, and A.T. Kearney, the management consultants. It provides aggregated distributor depletion data (sales to retailers) covering an expansive portfolio of wine and spirits products sold in all trade channels across the U.S.
Wine trends have been negative over the last six quarters, SipSource reports, with all traditional table wine varietals with the exception of Cabernet Sauvignon, Sauvignon Blanc, and Rosé trending south.
Still, wine does have something to cheer: Prosecco, which is very popular with American on-premise accounts and even offered through bar guns, is steady and growing at +11.5% heading into the important holiday season.
But Rosé, while still growing at +5.5%, is experiencing a growth rate that is half what it was last quarter, so the “Rosé party” may be over due to a loss of seasonal momentum, SipSource says.
While wine is declining, spirits trends show a very strong and stable category with balanced trends across channel and size. The result is the divide between wine and spirits is widening – the trend gap has grown to +5.4%.
The spirits category continues to grow, gaining +80 basis points in trend – something the wine category cannot claim, losing -240 basis points.
Spirits tells a tale of a very strong and stable category with balanced trends across channel and size. Vodka is the king, leading all spirit categories with almost 35% market share off a 1.9% growth trend this reporting period.
Irish, single malt scotch, straight bourbon, and Canadian are all up more than 4% since last reported, and have been consistently strong all year. When it comes to agave-based spirits, tequila continues its strong performance with uptick of an almost 10% this period. Rum and gin continue to show soft trends down 2.3% and 1.4% respectively.
Spirits-based occasions are stealing from wine, with sales are driven by cocktail culture. Mixologists are taking the time to maximize the experiences of bar patrons and diners, and are responsible in part for the 2.3% on-premise spirits growth trend. The exploratory and premiumization movements are also reflected in the lodging channel which is up 5.2%.
SipSource is built from the individual store and item level, and contains no sampling, projections, or estimates.