American wine drinkers continue to trade up, as upscale labels maintained their momentum last year, according to the recently released The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2019 Edition.
But the total wine market is projected to barely eke out an increase this year, with an estimated gain of just 0.3% to 330 million 9-liter cases. Indeed, per-capita wine consumption is expected to fall for the third consecutive year, as consumers gravitate toward whiskies, cocktails, and other alternative drinks, such as hard seltzers.
For the first time in over three decades, California blends outperformed single-varietal wines in 2018, due primarily to continued solid growth from rosés and red blends. California Chardonnay, the market’s largest-selling wine style, declined last year, as did Moscato, Merlot, and most blush varietals. Imported blends kept up their momentum, registering a solid 3.7% increase in 2018, marking their fourth consecutive annual gain. Rosé imports continue to surge, with a 33.5% jump last year, thanks largely to wines from the Provence region of France.
Premium-plus table wines (retailing at $10 a 750-ml. and higher) recorded solid growth in 2018, combining for a 5% volume increase. Premium-plus wines will account for just under half of the total table wine market this year in dollar terms, compared to just an 18% share at the beginning of the decade.
Looking ahead, the U.S. wine market is projected to reach 331 million cases next year, according to the 238-page report. Impact Databank then projects further small increases until 2025, when total consumption is forecasted to number 332.5 million cases, for a five-year growth rate of just 0.1% annually.