That’s according to NielsenIQ for the week ended March 13. Wine sales fell 8.1% and spirits were flat.
Beer/FMB/cider saw positive growth, up 0.4%. However, seltzers and FMBs drove most of that growth. Excluding seltzers, FMBs, and cider, “core beer” was down 2.2%. Seltzers alone shifted total off-premise alcohol by a percentage point. Excluding seltzers, total alcohol would have been down 3% in NielsenIQ off premise channels.
As a comparison, total fast-moving consumer goods declined by 20.7% for the week ending March 13, Nielsen said, far outpacing the slight declines for off-premise alcohol. Compared to two years ago, NielsenIQ off-premise spirit dollars are up 28%, wine is up 19%, and beer/FMB/cider is up 17% compared to the same week in 2019. This all indicates that alcohol dollars are still far above off-premise norms when comparing to years prior to the pandemic. You can expect that as more states open up, these trends will begin to flatten in the off-premise.
A glimpse of what’s coming for off-premise sales may be gathered from Texas, one of the first states to completely reopen bars and restaurants and lift the mask mandate.
For the week ending March 13 (3 days into the full opening) beer/FMB/cider sales were down 4.9% in Texas in off-premise channels. While sales in Texas declined more than the total U.S. growth rates (+0.4%), declines in other large beer states were even greater, with Florida down 5.5% and Illinois down 8.8%. Sales for the latest week in Texas are in line with dollar sales for previous weeks, 5.6% vs the prior week. So far, we aren’t seeing massive shifts in volume away from the off-premise, but that will likely change for the week ending March 20.
Beer/FMB/Cider
For the week ending March 13, nearly all segments in beer declined in dollar sales compared to the same week last year. Premium lights were down 4.2%, below premium (-7.6%), craft (-5.2%), cider (-7.1%), and FMBs excluding seltzers (-0.7%). Which segments carried the category to keep growth trends in the black? Hard seltzers (+26.4%), super premium (+4.2%), imports (+3.8%), Mexican imports (+6.4%), hard tea (+44%), and non-alcoholic beer (+25%).
Seltzer growth was led by Truly, which was the #1 growth brand not only for seltzers, but also for the entire beer/FMB/cider category. Truly’s growth was driven by the lemonade and new iced tea seltzers, illustrating that innovation is just as important — or even more important — now than pre-pandemic time periods. Modelo Especial and Michelob Ultra also were big growth drivers for the latest week.
Spirits
While overall growth rates were flat for spirits, some spirit categories are still growing by double or even triple growth rates, while others are declining by double digits in NielsenIQ off-premise channels. Tequila is still a massive growth driver, up 31%. Ready-to-drink cocktails are up 147%, cognac up 26%, cordials 7%, and Japanese whisky up 23%. Total whiskey declined by 1.8%, with American whiskey down 2.5%. Vodka off-premise dollar sales declined by 14% and gin is down nearly 10%.
All price tiers in spirits declined compared to year ago, except for the ultra premium price tier, which grew by 16.5%, signaling continued premiumization in spirits in off premise channels.
Wine
Sparkling led growth in off-premise wine. Table wine declined by 12.4%, while sparkling wine grew by 18.2%. French champagne grew by 76%. However, Nielsen said it is important to note that at this time last year, table wine growth far outpaced growth of sparkling wine, so sparkling wine isn’t facing as difficult comps. Flavored wine (+33%) and wine cocktails (+102%), while still very small, continue to grow and surpass last year’s dollar volume.
Similar to spirits, the high-end tier in off-premise table wine continues to grow, with the $20-$25 price tier up 1% and $25 price tier up 12.7%. Dollar sales for all price tiers below $20 have declined compared to sales for the same week last year.