Economy Watch: Fed Opts for Significant Anti-Inflation Moves

The stock market closed lower Tuesday, but the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to “hit the brakes hard” strikes us as a good thing, both for the economy in general and for investors in the stock market.  You can expect to see a 3% Fed funds rate by early next year, but also rate cuts by the end of 2023 as recession risks rise.

If successful, this will prevent runaway inflation, such as the U.S. experienced in the 1980s.  That would be a very good thing.

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Who & What —

NV Group USA names Scott Franklin EVP-Sales.  He joins from Angel’s Envy Bourbon, where he was regional sales director.

Carma Connected is a full-service, integrated Miami Beach public relations agency which has been named the p.r. shop for Latin Gin.

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Rombauer Acquires 3 California Vineyards

Rombauer Vineyards said it acquied three premium vineyards totaling 154 vine acres in the prestigious California appellations of Carneros-Sonoma, Sonoma Valley and Fiddletown. The acquisitions include the Haire Vineyard in Carneros-Sonoma, the Carriger Vineyard in Sonoma Valley, and an historic vineyard in the Fiddletown AVA of Amador County, bringing the family-owned winery’s estate and leased vineyards to a total of 830 planted vine acres. Terms weren’t disclosed.

“The Rombauer family’s goal has always been to produce the highest quality wines possible. Having control over our own vineyards and consistent access to premium fruit is key to our philosophy of continual improvement in wine quality and style” said President and Chief Executive Officer Bob Knebel.  “The acquisition of these long-established premium vineyards also gives us the resources to satisfy the increasing demand for our world class portfolio of wines.”

The 52-acre Haire Vineyard in Carneros has been a source of Chardonnay for Rombauer for nearly two decades, ever since Koerner Rombauer shook hands with owner Jim Haire on a deal to acquire the fruit. Planted by the Haire family in 2000 and farmed by them ever since, this historic block near the San Pablo Bay features Haire clay loam soils. Fruit from the vineyard is described by Rombauer Vice President of Viticulture and Winemaking Richie Allen as having the classic characteristics of melon, peach, and nectarine. It is a prized source for Rombauer’s Carneros Chardonnay.

The Carriger Vineyard sits in a small pocket on the southwestern reach of Sonoma Valley, an historical AVA with a tradition of winegrowing dating back over 150 years. With well-drained soils of high rock content, the vineyard has been a source for Rombauer’s popular Sauvignon Blanc, with 45 acres planted to the variety. Climatically the site is a “sweet spot” between Rombauer’s other Sauvignon Blanc sources in the warmer Napa Valley and cooler Russian River Valley, and the fruit brings punchy varietal intensity to the wine. Rombauer plans to replant 45 additional acres at Carriger to Sauvignon Blanc to meet demand for this wine.

The Rombauer family has long been a fan of the Sierra Foothills and the Fiddletown AVA in Amador County where it owns a winery, tasting room and vineyards. This new acquisition of 90 acres – 13 planted to old vine Zinfandel – further solidifies its commitment to the growing region. Sitting at an elevation ranging from 1,600-1,700 feet, this new Fiddletown vineyard features multiple sloping hillsides with different aspects and sandy loam soils from decayed granite. With plans to plant an additional 50 acres to Zinfandel and Barbera, Rombauer has begun preparing the land and laying out new blocks destined to become part of the winery’s classic California Zinfandel.

“Owning and farming our own vineyards is essential to the high-quality winemaking we are dedicated to, and these three sites are destined to become jewels in Rombauer’s portfolio,” said Allen. “It’s especially gratifying to see properties like Haire and Fiddletown pass from family to family. Rombauer is determined to be an excellent, long-term steward of these premium sites.”

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Craft Brewer Sales Rebound, Up 8%

Small and independent brewers collectively produced 24.8 million barrels of beer and realized 8% growth in 2021, increasing craft’s overall beer market share by volume to 13.1%, up from 12.2% the previous year, Brewers Association reported.

The overall beer market grew 1% by volume in 2021. Retail dollar value was estimated at $26.9 billion, representing 26.8% market share and 21% growth over 2020. This growth is stronger than volume primarily due to the channel shift back to on-premise, which has a higher average retail value. Craft brewers provided more than 172,643 direct jobs, a 25% increase from 2020.

“Craft brewer sales rebounded in 2021, lifted by the return of draught and at-the-brewery traffic,” said Bart Watson, chief economist, Brewers Association. “However, the mixed performance across business models and geographies as well as production levels that still lag 2019 suggest that many breweries remain in recovery mode. Add in continuing supply chain and pricing challenges, and 2022 will be a critical year for many brewers.”

The number of operating craft breweries continued to climb in 2021, reaching an all-time high of 9,118, including 1,886 microbreweries, 3,307 brewpubs, 3,702 taproom breweries, and 223 regional craft breweries. The total operating brewery count was 9,247, up from 9,025 in 2020.

Throughout the year, there were 646 new brewery openings and 178 closings. Openings decreased for a second consecutive year, with the continued decline reflecting a more mature market, Watson said. Ongoing pandemic challenges and rising interest rates were additional factors. The closing rate also declined in 2021, likely helped by a combination of better sales numbers and additional government relief through the Restaurant Revitalization Fund, which was available to some brewpub and taproom brewers.

“While the boom in breweries of a few years before has certainly slowed, the continued growth in small breweries shows the solid foundation of demand for their businesses and beers,” added Watson.

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Beer Imports Surge 18.2% — Almost All Growth from Mexico

Beer imports grew by an astounding 18.2% for February 2022 compared to February 2021, according to the Beer Institute, which analyzes Census Bureau data on imports. This growth was driven almost entirely by Mexican imports, which grew by 38.8%, up more than 660,000 barrels compared to a year ago. Note that the net gain for total imports was 450,000 barrels compared to February 2021, Beer Institute said.

Year ago comparisons are very favorable, with Mexican imports down 9.2% (down nearly 175K barrels) in February 2021 compared to February 2020. In fact, February 2021 was one of the lowest volume months in the past two years, with May 2020 as the only other month with lower volume, BI said.
Mexican import barrelage is in line with volume trends for recent months. For example, February 2022 shipments for MX imports are down -0.8% compared to January 2022 and up 0.5% compared to December 2021. (see chart below)
Typically, February volume drops compared to the prior month of January. In 2020, Mexican imported volume dropped 9% in February compared to the month prior of January 2020. The slight dip in volume for this latest month compared to January is a much better trend than we see in a typical drop from January to February.

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Sweetens Cove Intros a Union of Kentucky, Tennessee Bourbons

Sweetens Cove Spirits Co. introduced its latest expression – Kennessee, a union of Kentucky and Tennessee Bourbons, hand-curated and blended together by Master Blender Marianne Eaves. It is the latest expression by the premium purveyor of fine bourbons, named for the acclaimed 9-hole Tennessee golf course and featuring an ownership group that includes Peyton Manning, Andy Roddick and friends. In 2021, Esquire Magazine ranked Sweetens Cove as the #1 celebrity spirit in the world.

“Rather than argue whether Kentucky or Tennessee is better or best, why not put them together in one bottle and create magic?” said Eaves. “Each of these liquids reflect the enduring and exceptional personality of their region, sharing common ground and yet, distinctive qualities. Working barrel by barrel, I added a hint of toasted sugar maple wood to elevate this one-of-a-kind blend, just right at 110.7 proof.”

With an SRP of $59.00, Sweetens Cove Kennessee is the company’s first foray into the “all-access” market, with a high-end product and approachable price-point, ideal for happy hour, barbecues, tailgates and mixology.

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