The year-over-year growth rate for total off-premise alcohol dollar sales within Nielsen-measured channels is +22.2%, down 1.4% compared to the previous week. This week still captures some pre-Memorial Day movement.
Spirits again led growth, rising 32.2% year-over-year (though down 6.8% vs. the prior week). Wine was up 24.2% (though down 5.5% vs. the prior week). Beer/FMB/cider growth is +18.2% (+2.4% vs. the prior week). Beer specifically is +9.6% (+1.7% vs. prior week).
For the latest 13-week timeframe when COVID-19 heavily impacted consumer behavior (from the week ending March 7 through the week ending May 30), Total alcohol sales are up 26.4%, Beer/FMB/cider is up 21.3%, and Beer, specifically is up 13.3%, Wineis up 30.3% and spirits, 35.6%.
Under a full lockdown situation and even with ‘alcohol to go’ allowed, Nielsen has estimated that U.S. off-premise volume sales would need to maintain at least 22% growth rates to offset the on-premise losses. Spirits and wine had managed to maintain those volume growth rates, while beer/FMB/cider remained below that threshold. For the 13 weeks ended May 30, Spirits off-premise sales are up 32.1%; Wine, up 26.4%, and Beer/FMB/cider trail with a 17.2% advance frm the year earlier.
Online off-premise alcohol sales are up 255% year-over-year for the one-week period ending 5/30/20.
The age group with the lowest growth rates compared to last year are those age 55 and older, both as a result of lower increases in their number of buyers, as well as their shopping trip frequency.
Given this age group is less likely than younger consumers to be highly engaged on premise drinkers, there was likely less of a shift from on-premise to off-premise for older consumers.
For the 4-weeks ending May 9, there was an increase of more than 20% for alcohol buyers aged 21-34, 35-44, and 45-54, compared to an increase of only half that for those 55+. And consumers aged 21-34 are shopping more frequently than any other age demographic for alcohol compared to year ago.
“We are moving from the ‘restricted living’ phase of the pandemic to a ‘protracted re-opening’ phase. As a result, it’s likely that we will see further deceleration going forward of the substantial off-premise gains that we had seen over the last three months, but it’s still a long road back to pre-COVID times,” said Danny Brager, Senior Vice President of Beverage Alcohol at Nielsen.
Danelle Kosmal, Vice President of Beverage Alcohol added:
“Beer/flavored malt beverage/cider was the only alcohol category (and one of the few consumer goods categories) that experienced dollar sales growth in the U.S. off-premise vs. the previous week, thanks to a bump from the beer-centric Memorial Day holiday.
“The category once again surpassed $1 billion in off-premise sales in Nielsen measured channels, only $28 million behind beer/FMB/cider sales for the week of July 4th, 2019, traditionally the biggest beer holiday.”