It may take a year before the country can experience “something close to normality as we were before” the coronavirus pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director, National Institute of Allergies & Infectious Diseases, said.
If he’s right, that means it’s likely to be at least nine months before bars and restaurants will be able to resume anything resembling full service dining and drinking. Same thing for full-capacity attendance at sporting events and church services.
That’s because it will take time to get vaccines manufactured and distributed and for enough of the population to receive a “shot” to achieve so-called herd immunity. Indeed, a new poll finds only about half of Americans are ready to be vaccinated when their turn comes.
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows about a quarter of U.S. adults aren’t sure if they want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. Roughly another quarter say they won’t. Among those undecided, many indicate they’ll wait to see how initial vaccinations go.
Will bars and restaurants will be able to hang on that long? Every week brings new reports of eating and drinking places closing permanently, victims of the coronavirus. Even those that have been in business for decades have succumbed to a continued lack of business.
Indeed, yesterday county executives in seven Maryland counties announced new restrictions closing bars and restaurants. Much of California is locked down. To put it bluntly, bars and restaurants can’t wait until a vaccine has been widely administered.
We believe the missing element in all the planning and efforts to fight the virus is adequate testing. Experience in Asia, on U.S. college campuses and even in Slovakia suggests that massive testing, combined with mask-wearing, social distancing and washing hands is a powerful tool to enable “normal” life to resume more quickly. Combine testing and other protocols with a vaccine and there could be a snowball effect, perhaps allowing eating and drinking places to resume full service in the second quarter. . . . our guess. But to omit testing dooms them to suffer for at least another six months.
How to do it: We don’t think a draconian approach is necessary. If people want to go to bars and restaurants, they should be required to pass a rapid-response test (some produce results in as little as 15-30 minutes), or proof of passing another test within the last three or four days or proof of vaccination. Expand that when testing supplies are adquate to include sporting events and churches. Finally, add grocery stores.
The objection, of course, is cost. But the cost of waiting an extra six months to get back to “normal” — Dr. Fauci’s estimate, if we rely only on administering a vaccine — would make expanded testing a bargain.