The U.S. economy will continue to expand for the rest of 2022, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2022 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder for 2022 are similar to those expressed in December 2021, despite continued inflation and geopolitical unrest.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees.
Sales by manufacturers are expected to climb 9.2%. That’s down from the 13.1% increase reported for 2021, but still a solid performance. Sixty-three percent of respondents say that revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 15.5 percent compared to 2021. Only seven percent say revenues will decrease (10 percent, on average), and 30 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 87.2 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (7.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (11.1 percent) and employment (3.2 percent) by the end of 2022, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil of 2020 and 2021, ISM says.
For services, respondents to ISM’s survey project a 4.9-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than the 4.3-percent increase forecast in December 2021. Forty-eight percent of respondents say revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 13.4% compared to 2021. Meanwhile, 12% expect their revenues to decrease (11.4%, on average), and 40% indicate no change.
“The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2022. Services companies are currently operating at 91 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 9.6 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 2.5 percent. Each of the 18 industries forecast increased revenues, up from the 16 industries that predicted increases in December 2021,” says Anthony S. Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.