Suppliers, wholesalers and retailers all support moderation when it comes to drinking bev/al. They also all oppose anything that resembles Prohibition.
But what to think about “Dry January,” where people abstain from alcoholic beverages for the entire month?
We think it’s a threat – especially if a significant percentage of people do it. At the very least, it should result in lower sales during January. The bigger threat: It will lead people to significantly reduce moderate bev/al consumption during the rest of the year.
Indeed, researchers at the University of Sussex in England surveyed 2,821 people who took the challenge in 2017. Of the 2,821 people surveyed, the researchers were able to follow up with 1,715 of them in February and 816 in August. Collectively, respondents reported:
- drinking days fell on average from 4.3 to 3.3 per week;
- units consumed per drinking day dropped on average from 8.6 to 7.1, a 17% decline;
- frequency of being drunk dropped from 3.4 per month to 2.1 per month on average, a 38% decline.
“The simple act of taking a month off alcohol helps people drink less in the long term: by August people are reporting one extra dry day per week. There are also considerable immediate benefits: nine in 10 people save money, seven in ten sleep better and three in five lose weight.
“Interestingly, these changes in alcohol consumption have also been seen in the participants who didn’t manage to stay alcohol-free for the whole month – although they are a bit smaller. This shows that there are real benefits to just trying to complete Dry January.”
The University of Sussex research showed that:
- 93% of participants had a sense of achievement;
- 88% saved money;
- 82% think more deeply about their relationship with drink;
- 80% feel more in control of their drinking;
- 76% learned more about when and why they drink;
- 71% realized they don’t need a drink to enjoy themselves;
- 70% had generally improved health;
- 71% slept better;
- 67% had more energy;
- 58% lost weight;
- 57% had better concentration;
- 54% had better skin.
“The brilliant thing about Dry January is that it’s not really about January,” says Dr. Richard Piper, ceo, Alcohol Change UK, an anti-alcohol advocacy group behind Dry January. That’s what makes a threat to the bev/al industry, in our opinion.
“Being alcohol-free for 31 days shows us that we don’t need alcohol to have fun, to relax, to socialize. That means that for the rest of the year we are better able to make decisions about our drinking, and to avoid slipping into drinking more than we really want to.
“Many of us know about the health risks of alcohol – seven forms of cancer, liver disease, mental health problems – but we are often unaware that drinking less has more immediate benefits too. Sleeping better, feeling more energetic, saving money, better skin, losing weight … The list goes on. Dry January helps millions to experience those benefits and to make a longer-lasting change to drink more healthily.”
“Dry January” is a lot more pleasant sounding that the sort of Neo-Prohibitionist ranting the industry has faced in the past from groups such as Alcohol Justice. That means it will get a lot more positive press. Indeed, a Google News search produced 34.6 million results, including: “Take it from me: Dry January can be full of cheers (Chicago Tribune), A liver expert explains how Dry January can change your life (British GQ), How Dry January can make you more successful at work (CNBC).
You can bet that if this movement takes off, more on- and off-premise retailers will quickly make adjustments, just as they have with a shift by many Americans from daily consumption of meats.
Indeed, The Washington Post opines, “Forget Dry January. We need better nonalcoholic cocktails every month of the year” and quotes Jordan Silbert, founder of Q Mixers, as saying there are economic benefits to building out a nonalcoholic menu:
“Restaurants tend to make money on their bar programs,” he says, “and if you’ve got sophisticated nonalcoholic drinks, you can charge more for them instead of offering those customers a $3 ginger ale.”
What’s especially pernicious is that Dry January isn’t perceived as a Neo-Prohibitionist movement. It’s not government. It’s limited in time. And it’s promoted as offering a chance to choose something healthy.
If that’s not a threat to bev/al suppliers and wholesalers, what is?