Amy Walter, the National Editor of the Cook Political Report, told the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors’ Executive Summit that the most important thing about President Trump is his “incredible volatility. But our political environment has been incredibly stable.
“What people think about Trump hasn’t budget. He’s never been below 45% or about 55% in approval since the say he was inaugurated. This is different from other presidents” who got a honeymoon period at the start of their first term.
One reason for this, she suggested, is social media, which “is geared so you’re supposed to be outraged.” That’s also true of cable news, she added.
When President Richard M. Nixon went through impeachment, about 40% of voters thought he should be impeached, only 25% of voters approved of the job he was doing. As for former President Bill Clinton, at the time of his impeachment, 65% of voters thought the economy was doing well, but only 40-45% of voters thought he should be impeached.
It has always been thought that if the economy is strong, a president will get re-elected. Is that true this time? Walter noted that of those who say the economy is doing well, 50% say they won’t vote for President Trump in the election.
That’s largely because of his style or personality, Walter explained. More people hate Trump than like him, Walter said. This “intensity gap” finds two times as many people against him as say they love him.
“We’ve never seen a president with an approval rating of 42% to 43% get re-elected,” she said. But, Walter added, part of the problem for Democrats is the Electoral College. In three key states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Delaware – Democrats have won every recent election except 2016.
And there’s another problem in handicapping this election: Back in Clinton’s day, white voters voted as a block. But now that has been fractured, and there is a degree divide. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Delaware are “the whitest battleground states. But they also has a disproportionate percentage of voters who aren’t college graduates, Walter said, adding that Wisconsin is the key state.
“If Democrats don’t win Wisconsin, they have to win Arizona,” she said, to have any realistic hope of winning the presidency.”
Who will the Democrats nominate to oppose President Trump? Too soon to tell, but some Iowa analysis is enlightening. Under new rules adopted by the Democrats, it’s not enough to simply carry urban centers with large numbers of college students. That new rule hurts Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Another problem: The Democrats are defined as a party who base is female and voters of color. “But the two leading Democrats are old white men,” she said. Sanders vs. Biden is the core battle in the Democratic Party, she explained.
Sanders argument is that the country has structural problems that require revolutionary approaches. Biden, on the other hand, is arguing that the country wants stability, not revolution.
Why are Biden and Sanders leading the party? “It’s really hard to run for president,” she said. They’ve done it before, they have an organization and name recognition.
“Sanders seems to have consolidated the radical segment, but Biden hasn’t been able to consolidate the ‘restoration’ part of the party,” Walter said.
Might Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, become the Democratic nominee? It’s possible, but not likely, she said.
When people handicap an election, Walter said, they tend to ignore three groups of voters: the “low-information voters,” who aren’t intensely interested but will vote.” To explain this, Walter cited herself and the Super Bowl. She knows the two teams and one leading player, but she will watch the big game on Sunday.
The second group of voters that handicappers tend to ignore are voters who say the hate both candidates. In the last election, at the last moment, they broke overwhelmingly for Trump.
The third group are white, non-college-degree women who voted for Trump in 2016. They give Biden a 10 point lead.