Alcohol use by teens has been in a long-term decline since the 1980s. Now, the just-released Monitoring the Future survey by the University of Michigan finds that there weren’t any significant declines among eighth, tenth or 12 graders in the prevalence of lifetime, annual, 30-day or daily use, except for a 0.5 percentage point increase for daily use among 12th graders, to 1.7% from1.2% in 2018.
Still, the study notes, significant progress has been made. For example, the two-week prevalence of binge drinking has fallen from peak levels in the mid-to-late 1990s by between 54% and 71% in each of the three grades. Likewise, self-reports of getting drunk in the prior thirty days did not significantly change in 2019, but declined considerably in prior years.
Measures of extreme binge drinking were first introduced in 2005 in questionnaires completed only by 12th graders. They were asked about (a) having 10 or more drinks in a row on one or more occasions in the prior two weeks and (b) having 15 of more drinks in a row during the same period. Both of these measures have shown considerable declines of nearly two-thirds since their peak rates observed in 2006.
Both measures showed a nonsignificant increase in 2019 in 8th and 12th grade, and no change in 10th grade. (It should be noted that these questions occur on only one of the six questionnaire forms administered to 12th graders, making the year-to-year estimates less stable.)
Increases in adolescent marijuana vaping from 2018 to 2019 ranked among the largest single-year increases ever observed by Monitoring the Future in the past 45 years among all outcomes ever measured.
In 2019 the percentage of adolescents who had vaped marijuana in the last 12 months was 21% in 12th grade, 19% in 10th grade, and 7% in 8th grade.
In 12th grade the prevalence of marijuana vaping increased 7.7 percentage points in 2019, which is the second largest increase in 12-month substance use ever recorded in this grade (the largest increase was last year, with the 10.9% absolute increase in nicotine vaping). In 10th grade the increase was 7.0 percentage points in 2019, which is also the second largest ever observed in the 29 years that the study has tracked past 12-month substance use in this grade (the largest increase was last year, with the 8.9% absolute increase in nicotine vaping from 2017 to 2018).
For all secondary students the increases in marijuana vaping translate into at least one million additional marijuana vapers in 2019 as compared to 2018.
Nicotine Vaping Surges
Nicotine vaping in the last 12 months also significantly increased in 2019. This increase occurred on top of last year’s increase in nicotine vaping, which was the largest increase ever recorded by MTF in 12th and 10th grade.
In 12th grade 35% of students reported vaping nicotine in the last 12 months, a significant increase of 5.6 percentage points from 2018. In 10th grade 31% of students reported vaping nicotine in the last 12 months, a significant increase of 6.1 percentage points from 2018. And in 8th grade 17% reported vaping nicotine in the last 12 months, which is a significant increase of 5.6% from 2018.
“Current policies and procedures to prevent youth vaping clearly aren’t enough,” said Richard Miech, the lead investigator of the project. “We need new policies and strategies to prevent unscrupulous businesses from making billions of dollars by addicting children to nicotine. Because the vaping industry is quickly evolving, new, additional, vaping-specific strategies may well be needed in the years to come in order to keep vaping devices out of the hands of youth.”
Daily Marijuana Use Increases among Youngest Adolescents
Daily marijuana use, defined as use on 20 or more occasions in the past 30 days by any method, significantly increased in 10th and 8th grade. In 10th grade it increased by 1.3 percentage points to 4.8%, which is the highest prevalence for this outcome ever measured by MTF since tracking began for this grade in 1991.
In 8th grade prevalence increased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3%, which is the highest level ever tracked by the survey since tracking began for this grade in 1991 (it ties with the year 2011). If these 8th and 10th grade student continue their high levels of marijuana use, then increased levels in 12th grade should appear in a year or two.
LSD Levels Increase
LSD showed significant increases in 30-day prevalence in grades 10 and 12. Though in absolute terms the levels are low (1.1% and 1.4%, respectively), they are the highest levels seen since 2000. We will be watching this drug in future years.
The annual Monitoring the Future study has annually tracked dozens of substance use outcomes among U.S. adolescents since 1975 for 12th grade students and since 1991 for 10th and 8th grade students. The project is conducted by a team of researchers at the University of Michigan and is funded by the National Institute on Drug abuse.