Control States’ Sales Eased in March

Control States spirits case sales eased0.6% in March from the year-earlier level. Montgomery County Maryland (15.7%), Utah (30.3%), Vermont (3.0%), and Wyoming (3.7%) reported monthly growth rates for March exceeding their twelve-month trends, National Alcoholic Beverage Control Association says.

The growth rates for Alabama (3.3%), Iowa (-0.5%), Idaho (-3.1%), Maine (-1.9%), Michigan (-2.3%), Mississippi (-7.5%), Montana (2.9%), New Hampshire (-11.8%), North Carolina (0.4%), Ohio (-2.9%), Oregon (-2.2%), Pennsylvania (0.6%), Virginia (-1.23%), and West Virginia (-1.5%) fell short of their 12-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 3.5%, is down from February’s reported 3.8%.  Spirits’ volumes growth is down -0.2% year-to-date compared to 4.2% a year ago.

Control state spirits shelf dollars are up 1.7% during March while trending at 7.8% during the past twelve months. Utah (29.8%) reported a monthly growth rate for March exceeding its twelve-month trend. Alabama (3.6%), Iowa (0.5%), Idaho (0.7%), Maine (2.3%), Montgomery County Maryland (15.2%), Michigan (0.3%), Mississippi (-0.4%), Montana (3.4%), New Hampshire (-15.0%), North Carolina (6.1%), Ohio (-0.5%), Oregon (3.0%), Pennsylvania (-0.1%), Virginia (0.3%), Vermont (7.4%), West Virginia (-0.3%), and Wyoming (4.7%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 2.9% year-to-date compared to being up 12.0% last March.

Price/Mix for March was 2.3%, slipping from February’s reported 3.9%.

Price/Mix is calculated using dollar growth and nine-liter case growth of current month over same period last year results. For the first time in 24 months, March’s Price/Mix has been at, or below, its pre-COVID average of 2.3%. Since April 2020, Price/Mix calculations have yielded values significantly higher than the pre-COVID average, including an all-time high of 10.6% during April 2021. The data suggest the historic Price/Mix values experienced during the period April 2020 through February 2022 were driven by premiumization and pricing actions.

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was March’s fastest growing category with 30.4% reported and a twelve-month trend of 35.9%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 14.1% during March and 21.2% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac (-24.1% during March, -11.5% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey (-3.6%, -1.2%), Cocktails (30.4%, 35.9%), Cordials (0.3%, 9.2%), Domestic Whiskey (1.1%, 3.1%), Gin(-3.8%, -0.2%), Irish Whiskey(0.7%, 12.8%), Rum(-2.5%, 0.5%), Scotch(-7.9%, 0.6%), Tequila(14.1%, 21.2%), and Vodka(-1.2%, 1.1%) all grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

March’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was down 3.7%. Pennsylvania (reporting -7.6% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-7.3%), Mississippi (-2.3%), Utah (22.7%), Montgomery County Maryland (2.0%), and Wyoming (-2.8%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –3.7%, improving upon February’s reported -4.6%.

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