Control States Case Sales Eased in May

Control States spirits case sales fell 1% from the like year-earlier period, National Alcohol Beverage Control Association said.

Alabama  was up 8.2%),  as did Idaho (14.8%), Mississippi (14.6%), North Carolina (12.3%), New Hampshire (25.0%), Ohio (9.3%), Oregon (7.3%), Virginia (9.1%), Vermont(13.1%), West Virginia (11.3%), and Wyoming (6.9%) all  reported monthly growth rates for May exceeding their twelve-month trends.

Growth rates for Iowa (-2.1%), Montgomery County, Md. (-2.7%), Maine (2.2%), Michigan (-7.2%), Montana (4%), Pennsylvania (-37.0%), and Utah(-12.8%) fell short of their twelve-month trends.

Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 4%, was down from April’s reported 4.4%. Spirits volumes grew 4.8% year-to-date compared to 4.2% a year ago.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 4.9% during May while trending at 6.7% during the past twelve months. Alabama (16.1%), Idaho (21.1%), Mississippi (19.9%), North Carolina (19.2%), New Hampshire (24.1%), Ohio (17.9%), Oregon (13.6%), Virginia (14.2%), Vermont (14.3%), and West Virginia (16.3%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends.

Iowa(-2.2%), Montgomery County, Md. (0.8%), Maine (2.0%), Michigan (2.1%), Montana (4.8%), Pennsylvania (-34.4%), Utah (-9.2%), and Wyoming (6.9%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 8.0% year-to-date compared to 6.9% last year.

Price/Mix for May is 5.9%, lapping April’s reported 2.8%.

Price/Mix has been tracked by NABCA since January 2002, and May’s 5.9% is the largest Price/Mix value published, ever. The previous highest value, 4.7%, was recorded during November 2006.

During March, April, and May the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. During the twelve-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly share averaged 82%. During March the of-premise share jumped to 90% and during April to 99%. During May it moderated, somewhat, to 96%. Trends suggest the Control State off-premise share for June may continue to be elevated above historical levels.  

Cocktails, with 2% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was May’s fastest growing category with 43.2% reported and a twelve-month trend of 20.1%. Brandy / Cognac, with 6% share, grew during May at 12.1% and 4.7% during the past twelve months while Tequila, with 7% share, grew at 11.2% and 10.7%.

Vodka, with 34% share, grew during the same periods at -6.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(12.1% during May, 4.7% twelve-month trend), Cocktails(43.2%, 20.1%), and Tequila(11.2%, 10.7%) grew at rates above their twelve-month trends, while Canadian Whiskey (-0.7%, 3.2%), Cordials (-7.4%, 0.0%), Domestic Whiskey (4.4%, 8.3%), Gin (-6.7%, -0.1%), Irish Whiskey (-10.6%, 4.7%), Rum (-7.2%, -0.5%), Scotch (-5.5%, 0.2%), and Vodka (-6.6%, 2.7%) fell short.

 May’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was 7.4%. Pennsylvania (reporting 7.6% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (30.2%), Utah (-20.4%), Mississippi (10.0%), Montgomery County Maryland (-8.4%), and Wyoming (-2.2%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is -0.1%, up from April’s reported -1.0%.

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