Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case Control States spirits market, was November’s fastest growing category with 30% growth reported and a 12-month trend of 38.2%., National Alcohol Beverage Control Association says.
Tequila, with 7% share, grew during November at 14.5% and 21.1% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 33% share, grew during the same periods at -2.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(2.1% during November, 14.5% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey(3.6%, 7.3%), Cocktails(30.0%, 38.2%), Cordials(1.8%, 4.6%), Domestic Whiskey(5.8%, 12.0%), Gin(-4.1%, 2.3%), Irish Whiskey(-2.3%, 6.3%), Rum(-1.3%, 3.0%), Scotch(-7.4%, 2.2%), Tequila(14.5%, 21.1%), and Vodka(-2.1%, 4.0%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.
Overall, Control States’ spirits case sales grew 2%, against a weak comp, over the like year-earlier period . Montana (11.0%), Pennsylvania (5.4%), and Wyoming (14.7%) reported monthly growth rates for November exceeding their 12-month trends.
The growth rates for Alabama (3%), Iowa (4.8%), Idaho (7.3%), Montgomery County, Md. (-16.6%), Maine (6.4%), Michigan (17.0%), Mississippi (10.1%), North Carolina (1.8%), New Hampshire (-33.8%), Ohio (-0.6%), Oregon (-0.7%), Utah (5.9%), Virginia (-5.6%), Vermont (2.0%), and West Virginia (9.3%) fell short of their twelve-month trends.
Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 8%, improved upon October’s reported 7.8%. Spirits volumes are growing 8% year-to-date compared to 3.3% a year ago.
Short- and long-term growth trends are calculated to compare and analyze control state sales data. Twelve-month moving averages are used to calculate the short-term trend (rolling-twelve-month growth), and the three-year CAGR is used to calculate the long-term trend. November’s short-term trend, 8.0%, is the highest value reported, and November’s long-term trend, 4.5%, is the second highest value reported, by the control states.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 6.4% during November while trending at 13.2% during the past twelve months. Maine (11.5%), Michigan (27.9%), Montana (15.6%), Pennsylvania (5.7%), Utah (11.0%), and Wyoming (13.7%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends.
Alabama (7.6%), Iowa (4.9%), Idaho (12.6%), Montgomery County, Md. (-12.7%), Mississippi (17.2%), North Carolina (6.6%), New Hampshire (-37.9%), Ohio (6.4%), Oregon (5.1%), Virginia (-1.5%), Vermont (4.3%), and West Virginia (13.1%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 13.6% year-to-date compared to 5.9% last year.
Price/Mix for November is 4.4%, down from October’s reported 8.3%.
Following the eruption of the Covid pandemic in March, control states’ on- and off-premise markets have behaved capriciously. November is no exception, NABCA said. During the 12-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly spirits share averaged 82%. The off-premise monthly shares of the control state market during March-November by month were 91%, 99%, 97%, 90%, 90%, 89%, 88%, 88%, and 91%, respectively. This sequence suggests that the on-premise marketplace’s recovery is irregular and saw-toothed-like after being devastated by the coronavisrus. Trends suggest the control state off-premise share for December will be above historical levels as the recovery continues.
Wine
November’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was 1.4%. Pennsylvania (reporting 6.2% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-17.5%), Mississippi (9.0%), Utah (4.3%), Montgomery County, Md., (-7.4%), and Wyoming (9.7%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 2.7%, up from October’s reported 2.5%.