Those of us in media jump on any trend and ride it to death. So it’s not surprising that the novel coronavirus is getting a lot of play. Our policy at BND is to leave it to other media to report on the spread and to report only how it directly affects the bev/al industry. Nonetheless, a couple of stories in the media this morning lead us to make a couple of observations.
First, The Washington Post has taken time out from its relentless attacks on President Trump to report the “virus may have spread undetected for weeks in Washington state.” Of course it has. The disease’s incubation period before symptoms become visible is at least 14 days. That’s at least two weeks.
The Post also this morning is detailing the impact in Kirkland, Wash.: “Churches canceled services, firefighters and police officers were quarantined, and a college shut its doors as more people fell ill.”
Meanwhile, our friends over at The Spirits Business want you to know that COViD19 has led to delay or cancellation of public events in China, including the ProWein Asia trade show in Singapore as well as ProWein tradeshow set for March 15-17 in Dusseldorf, Germany.
The virus will undoubtedly have a significant short-term impact. Diageo announced it was cutting its earnings estimate as a result of the virus’s impact in China. Beam Suntory and Jim Beam see it creating challenges in Asian markets, and possibly elsewhere.
Our expectation is that the virus will spread, many public gatherings will be delayed or cancelled, and this will have a significant impact on businesses which depend on public gatherings – airlines, hotels, restaurants and the like. We think the virus will have less impact on the bev/al business which is not dependent upon public gatherings. People can still buy liquor – even stocking up in advance – and drink at home, even if they choose not to go out and about. Plus: wine and spirits can age well, and beer can hold for months.
No one knows what the future holds for the spread of the disease, and we’re certainly not suggesting COViD19 isn’t serious. But the sky isn’t falling – at least on bev/al producers and distributors – and we don’t think anyone should panic.
What would be appropriate, however, is to assure the public that there are adequate stocks of their favorite beverages, and now would be a great time to stock up.