We’re not in the habit of citing stories from other publications in the news portion of this newsletter (although we do in “What We’re Reading—“), but we want to urge to read this article from The Spectator.
It turns out that that highly publicized study reported in The Lancet, a British medical journal, doesn’t refute what you’ve known for at least 30 years: Moderate drinking is associated with living longer than either heavy drinking or tea-totaling.
Recall that decades of epidemiology have shown that the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality is J-shaped.
At moderate rates of consumption, mortality risk falls below that of a teetotaler and then rises, exceeding that of a teetotaler at around 30-40 units per week. The exact shape of the curve varies depending on your criteria for inclusion but the basic conclusion is always the same: moderate drinkers live longer than teetotalers.
The Lancet study played some games. First, it didn’t show the normal J-curve. To see that you would have to go to the back of the study where it’s buried. Second, it excluded non-drinkers. Include nondrinkers, and the new study doesn’t contradict anything.
The truth remains: Light drinkers have the best outcomes, but drinkers who consume double the 14 units recommended by Britain’s Chief Medical Officer do better than those who do not drink at all.
The Lancet study is based on the unspoken assumption that the guidelines should be set at the point at which the health benefits of drinking are maximized, i.e. at the lowest point of the J-Curve.
“By focusing on the ideal level of consumption, rather than the ‘safe’ level, the Lancet study did effectively create a ‘target’ rather than a ‘limit’. It portrays five or six drinks a week as optimal. Zero drinks a week is not,” the article says.
“By the time the truth had got its shoes on and the corrections were issued, the lie had spread around the world. I’m not convinced that this was an accident. It has all the hallmarks of fake news,” the article notes.
“No matter how easy it is to debunk a bald lie, it will always spread faster, and live longer, than a subtle truth. Last week’s news reports will be remembered by those who want to believe that the benefits of moderate drinking are imaginary. The authors’ claim that drinking guidelines are still too low will be cited by campaigners in Britain for years to come. I doubt that anyone associated with this study was upset when they saw the headlines on Friday morning.”
Also read this: “Moderate drinking is good for the heart. Why won’t public health admit it?”