The stock market stumbled today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 blue chip stocks falling more than 700 points, supposedly a reaction to President Trump’s new tariffs against goods from China. (An aside: We have to wonder, whatever happened to “sell on the rumor, buy on the news.”)
But the Conference Board released its latest Leading Economic Index, which foresees robust economic growth continuing through 2018.
“The U.S. LEI rose again, despite a sharp downturn in stock markets and weakness in housing construction in February,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at the Conference Board.
“The LEI points to robust economic growth throughout 2018. Its six-month growth rate has not been this high since the first quarter of 2011. While the Federal Reserve is on track to continue raising its benchmark rate for the rest of the year, the recent weakness in residential construction and stock prices – important leading indicators – should be monitored closely.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in February to 103.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January, and a 0.2 percent increase in December.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in February to 104.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January and a 0.6 percent increase in December.