“One of the largest takeaways from the Q3 report is the continued, steady growth of spirits,” said Dale Stratton, SipSource Analyst. “The impressive performance of spirits categories continues to be strong and is leading the total alcohol growth over the long term, with no signs of slowing down. However, wine is still facing an uphill battle — let’s hope the holiday season gives it the boost it needs.”
SipSource Q3 data shows how in an ever-changing landscape, the strength of spirits continues to remain consistent — especially when compared to wine. According to 12-month rolling numbers ending in September 2021, spirits are showing an overall volume growth of +5.9%. When looking at the year-to-date nine-month period, it’s even stronger, up +8.3%. SipSource data anticipates a strong year-end close for spirits, estimated to finish above the current +5.9% trend.
Premixed Cocktails continue to lead spirits growth, up a staggering +45.1% — representing the seventh-largest product class in spirits, with 6.9% share of volume. Tequila and agave spirits also continue to see growth, up +18.3%. Cordials and Liqueurs are up +8.9%, followed by Irish Whisky, up +7.1%.
On the other hand, wine continues to struggle and is down -5.4% for the 12-month period ending in September. But the bad news for wine doesn’t end there: when looking at the latest nine-month period, wine is down -6.7%, and down -8.9% in the latest three-month period. The wine trends continue to be concerning. While Sparkling Wines are experiencing growth, up +11.8%, Table Wine is down -7.2%. Wine is expected to follow spirits in having a strong holiday season but will most likely not see a positive trend before the new year.
“As we head into the holidays, it’s important to look back at last year’s comp period,” said Stratton. “During October to December of 2020, depletion trends were soft, down -2.2% in total. This means we should see elevated trends during October, November and December of 2021.”
The upcoming holidays will be an important time for the industry — specifically wine. While the on-premise channel is seeing great recovery, it is not without complications. Because comps are so unstable, trends in the on-premise are of little to no help. To aid in this, SipSource created the Channel Shifting Index (CSI), delivered monthly, which tracks the progress for wine and spirits compared to the base share in February 2020. View the latest CSI report here.
SipSource by Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA), the first and only source for wine and spirits distributor depletion data that covers sales to hundreds of thousands of on- and off-premise accounts