The U.S. approach to dealing with the novel coronavirus can best be described as shutting down a vast swath of the economy, with all the attendant impacts from that. To be sure, President Trump pooh-poohed the whole situation repeatedly referring to it as a Democratic hoax.
Now, some public health experts are flat out saying a shut down was the wrong was to go. We agree. While the virus is very real, and while it can be very deadly — it is believed to be 10 times more deadly than the flu, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine — most people don’t die. Indeed, according to researchers at the Indiana University School of Medicine, of those 60 and older, the death rate is under 3%.
A group of infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists have issued the “Great Barrington Declaration,” saying “those who are at minimal risk of death should be allowed to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection while better protecting those who are at highest risk.”
The declaration goes on to say, “Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.”
There’s one caveat that the Great Barrington Declaration doesn’t discuss, but which we believe is essential: There has to be a rigorous testing program and a very quick isolation process for those found infected.
That process has worked at Indiana University which yesterday reported the positivity rate among those living in Greek houses wa 1.4% (down from 1.5% a week earlier); the positivity rate in residence halls was 1.1% (down from 1.5% a week earlier); Greek-affiliated students who don’t live in their organization’s houses was2.5% (down from 3.5%), and among all other off-campus houses was 0.8% (up from 0.5%).
This decline occurred as the state of Indiana set back-to-back records on Oct. 10 and 11.
How has IU accomplished this? First, a robust testing program for all faculty, students and staff. Every person who tests positive is put into an isolation program, contacted daily by text asking about their symptoms and whether they have gotten worse. There’s also social distancing, require mask-wearing, etc.
In short, with proper testing and everyone following proper protocols, it should be possible to reopen the vast majority of U.S. businesses. Does that include restaurants? We’d say yes, at lower-than-normal occupancy. Same for theaters, concert halls, etc. Bars are a bit more problematic. But not all bars are the same.
Footnote: We don’t think either presidential candidate is on the right page when it comes to dealing with the pandemic. President Trump is very weak on testing and hasn’t encouraged use of masks or social distancing, even though until a vaccine is deployed those are the best defensive tools we have. As for Joe Biden, he has publicly stated he is willing to shut down — again — the entire U.S. economy.