The surge in the off-premise is projected to be just enough to propel the overall industry to yet another volume gain, albeit at a tepid 0.2% rate, according to the current edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. However, off-premise growth won’t be enough to offset the huge loss in the on-premise in value terms, and retail dollar value for the wine market is expected to decline this year.
Looking ahead, the economic recession and pandemic impacts—as well as continued pressure from other drinks sectors—will cause the overall wine market to shed volume in 2021 after 27 consecutive annual gains, according to the 252-page report.
After steadily increasing from 1994 to 2011, per-capita wine consumption is expected to be in decline until at least 2025. The U.S. wine industry recorded a solid 3% annual growth rate between 2000 and 2010, but averaged just a 0.7% increase between 2010 and 2020.
Still, vibrant growth is ongoing across a number of segments, including New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc, rosé from France and other origins, California red blends, Prosecco, and canned wines. Kendall-Jackson remains the largest-selling premium-priced brand (above $10 a 750-ml.) at retail, while Veuve Clicquot leads all imports in dollar terms, according to Impact Databank.
Barefoot is the only wine brand with retail sales exceeding $1 billion, while Franzia boxed wine continues to be the largest seller in volume terms by a wide margin. Among marketers, E.&J. Gallo will lead all industry players in 2020 by both dollar value and case volume for the 19th consecutive year.