To be sure, says Danelle Kosmal, vp-beverage alcohol at Nielsen, there has been a significant shift in volume volume from on-premise channels which has exaggerated growth rates for off premise alcohol, but not enough to make up for total losses in on-premise channels.
“Alcohol grew 18% in off-premise channels for the latest week ending 8/22/20, and year-over-year dollar growth trends for the previous week were +18.5%. The idea of consumers settling into this next normal continues, and I expect to see similar off-premise growth trends for next several weeks,” she said.
On-premise, week on week sales velocity (average rate of sale per the average establishment) has grown 3% Aug. 22 vs. Aug. 15 across the US, representing the 7th consecutive week without a decline.
Sales velocity in New York remains in growth again at +4% vs Aug. 15, representing a +285% increase vs. March 28 when on-premise shutdown commenced.
Illinois experienced the strongest growth across the states analyzed at +11% Aug. 22 vs. Aug. 15 and is now only 36% below velocity vs. the same week last year.
On-premise velocity in outlets that are currently operational is down 22% vs. last year in the week to Aug. 22. This is a 239% increase on March 28 when the on-premise shutdown commenced.
Beer/FMB/Cider Off-Premise
- Hard seltzers continue in triple-digit growth in off premise channels, up 113% for the latest week compared to last year.
- Hard seltzer growth rates are slowing compared to growth rates from June and July, and share has fallen back a bit, although still above 10% of the category, accounting for 10.2% of total off-premise category dollars for the latest week.
- Off premise dollar growth trends for other segments in the category include:
- craft had another strong week, up 14.1%
- super premium up 21.8%
- Mexican imports bouncing back a bit at +12.8% compared to the same week last year.
Wine: Off-Premise
Total wine grew 17.4% in off premise dollars for the week ending Aug. 22. Table wine was up 13.3%, and was outpaced by sparkling wine, which was up 35.5%.
Imported table wine, up 17.1%, continues to outpace growth of domestic table wine, up 11.9%.
Imported growth is driven by New Zealand (23.6%), Italian (23.3%) and French (18.7%) table wines.
Domestic table wine is losing share at a much faster pace than pre-COVID time periods, and is down 3.0 share points compared to the same week last year. California table wines accounted for most of that, down 2.5 share points.
Spirits: Off-Premise
Spirits off premise dollar growth for the latest week ending Aug. 22 was +26.2%.
While whiskey dollar growth rates slightly lag that of the category (+24.2%), whiskey contributes to more overall dollar growth compared to any other category in spirits.
For the latest week, whiskey accounted for 33% of total spirit growth dollars in Nielsen off premise channels.
American whiskey leads at +27.8%, followed by Irish whiskey (+27.6%).
Japanese whisky, while still very small (0.3% of spirit off premise dollars), has experienced a surge in off premise growth since mid June, and is up 60.1% in off premise for the latest week compared to the same week last year.
Other strong spirit categories that continue to drive growth include tequila (+59.1%), ready-to-drink cocktails (+101%) and cognac (+53.2%).