Sparkling wine from the French region of Champagne will do okay, too. That’s the takeaway from the latest just-drinks/IWSR Global Insights report.
To be sure, conditions are tough right now — European markets, particularly the CIS, shed more than 2 million cases in 2015 alone, and economic conditions in key African markets, especially Nigeria and Angola, both of whom have been impacted by falling oil prices worsened in 2015.
But as the mutual fund ads remind us, past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results. Champagne houses are expected to see “unprecedented and uninterrupted growth,” with shipments reaching 28 million cases, a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%.
Non-Champaign houses are expected to see even faster growth in the next five years, with volumes reaching 219 million cases by 2021, a CAGR of 2.2%.
Six leading markets – Russia, the US, Italy, the UK, Argentina and China – set to record “spectacular” growth, the report says.
Germany, still by far the world’s leading sparkling wine market despite recent challenges, will consolidate its position with solid gains to 2021, with France and Spain, two more leading markets, following suit.
But, Germany’s position as the leading consumer of imported sparkling wines could be under threat in the next few years. If the UK continues to grow at rates above 10% – as it has done over the past five years – it will soon overtake Germany.
Much of the growth in the UK – and indeed in the US and many other global markets – is being driven by the Prosecco boom. This, says the report, has become the “go-to option for aperitif seekers”, thanks to its perceived status as an everyday mini-luxury.