2020 ‘Worst Year’ for Beer, but 2021 to See ‘Incredible’ Swing from Off- to On-Premise Sales

The industry went through an incredible time last year, the rush to the off-premise, Lester Jones, chief economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association told the group’s legislative conference.  Consumers spent $20 billion less for beer last year than in 2019.  There was “a lot of demand for package beer, but that didn’t compensate for the $28 billion that was lost,” he added.

This will be another incredible year for beer, he said.  “We will see is a tremendous shift from off-premise to on-premise this year.”

Spirits grew 5% last year, but beer was up a measley 0.5%.  In 2000, about 50% of ethanol belonged to beer, but last year only about 45% belonged to beer.  “The battle for share of stomach, of wallet, etc., is paramount for beer,” he said.  “We have to make beer special if we want to win against liquor.”

This year “almost matches 2019.  The industry is chugging along heading to the summer selling season.  On-premise is coming back.  Looking at NBWA’s Beer Purchases Index, last year was its worst performance ever.  But in 2021, everything is a lot stronger.  The at-risk inventory (amount of beer at risk of going out of code in the next 30 days) — in much of 2020 was below 50.  But in the last couple of months, as sales picked up, wholesalers found themselves in a new less comfortable zone of operating with less inventory

In an effort to promote beer as a category, NBWA has partnered with other groups to create the Beer Growth Initiative which has “produced meaningful results,” NBWA said.   It’s essentially “an ode to the unexpected moments that make life just a little more fun.  It targets a more female-skewed audience between 21-29.

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