Alan Beaulieu, president of ITR Economics and an annual speaker at the national Association of Wholesaler-Distributor’s Annual Executive Summit has long warned of another Great Depression beginning around 2030.
There’s another reason to worry about 2030, it turns out. The Census Bureau today (3/13) released a report noting that in 2030, all Baby Boomers will be 65 or older. And by 2035, the number of older adults will outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history.
“Beyond 2030, the U.S. population is projected to grow slowly, to age considerably, and to become more racially and ethnically diverse,” Census says in a new report, out today (3/13). “Despite slowing population growth, particularly after 2030, the U.S. population is still expected to grow by 78 million people by 2060, crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058,” the agency adds.
That’s going to make it harder to sell beer. And wine. And spirits. And everything else. Older folks don’t buy as much bev/al, don’t buy as expensive bev/al, and don’t go out to restaurants as often.
Census projects that the number of people 18-44 years old, the prime drinking-age population, will grow just 7.8% over the 14 years between 2016 and 2030. The number of those 45-64, who are willing to spend more to drink better, will actually fall 3.6% over that 14-year period. Add those two groups together, and the number of people ages 18-64 will rise only 3% over 14 years. That’s just 0.2% — you read that right, just 2/10 of a percent – every year until 2030. (Actually, it’s less than 0.2%, because this is not a compound annual growth rate number.)
And if immigration declines – or Americans don’t have more babies – it will be even tougher to sell beer, wine and spirits than those numbers indicate.