No tree grows to the sky, the old saying goes. The reverse is true, too. No decline goes to zero – there are still buggy whip makers, furriers, etc.
It appear the beer business may be starting to stabilize. The total beer index rose to 58 in September, NBWA reported. A year ago, it was 46. That’s positive, as NBWA itself notes.
“Compared to all September readings over the past five years, this marks an improving trend over 2016, 2017 and 2018. The “At-Risk Inventory” index for total beer index dropped up to 46 and continues to remain below the 50 mark ending the third quarter,” NBWA said.
Flavored malt beverages/progressive adult beverages saw another increase over the 2018 level, rising to 79 in September from 60 a year earlier.
But the craft index drop to 45 – anything below 50 indicates contraction, NBWA said – from 57 a year earlier. It’s the second time the once unstoppable craft beer engine has appeared to sputter this year.
Imports fell to 51 from 62 a year earlier.
Premium lights inched up to 36 from 31. That’s still in the “contraction” range, but at least it’s moving in the right direction. Premium regulars also ticked up slightly over this time last year from 24 to 27. Below premiums fell over the same period from 34 to 31. All three domestic segments continue to struggle with below 50 index readings.
The cider segment continues to show the most variability of any segment in the BPI, falling from 45 to 34. Cider orders continue to contract from peak readings in late 2018. This series will continue to play out as regional ciders brands compete aggressively against larger national cider brands.