Expect on-premise business to recover later this year, but also expect Covid to have created additional advantages for larger wineries and to support industry consolidation, leading to a much higher level of merger and acquisition activity.
Why expect consolidation? Rabobank‘s latest Wine Quarterly notes that from 2012 to 2019, wine consumption in the US grew ~6% (by volume) while the number of wineries in California increased by ~40%. During this time, the three largest California wineries saw marked declines in market share. The result: a growing number of premium wineries battling for a relatively fixed share of the market. While the larger players have maintained share by dominating the off-premise channel, this growing number of small wineries have focused more on the on-premise channel, direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, or some mix of the two, Rabobank says.
“The on-premise channel has been particularly important for smaller wineries, given the fragmentation of the on-premise channel. Small, independent restaurants are a critical sales channel for small wineries in most major markets. The recovery of the on-premise channel will play a critical role in the recovery prospects of small wineries,” Rabobank says, predicting it will take years for sales at full-service restaurants to recover to pre-2020 levels.
Even worse, for smaller wineries and independent restaurants: “the recovery will be dominated by restaurant chains that enjoy solid financing backing, while independent restaurants will still not have recovered fully by 2024.” As we have said before, big companies require big brands.
You can expect private equity cash to drive consolidation. Private equity has been a prime beneficiary of governments’ loose money policies. The recent acquisition of Vintage Wine Estates is a harbinger for what is to come, Rabobank warns.
The picture for small wineries is not completely dark, Rabobank’s analysts say. But those small wineries will have to create a clear value proposition.