During August nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 1.8% over same period sales last year, National Alcoholic Beverage Control Association reports.
Iowa (12.9%), Mississippi (34.3%), and Pennsylvania (1.3%) reported monthly growth rates for August exceeding their 12-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama (2.6%), Idaho (6.2%), Montgomery County Maryland (-9.8%), Maine (-2.9%), Michigan (-2.4%), Montana (3.1%), North Carolina (2.7%), New Hampshire (-13.5%), Ohio (3.5%), Oregon (1.2%), Utah (-18.9%), Virginia (4.4%), Vermont (1.3%), West Virginia (8.0%), and Wyoming (8.7%) fell short of their twelve-month trends.
Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 5.9%, was flat with July’s reported 6.0%. Spirits volumes are growing 6.9% year-to-date compared to 3.7% a year ago.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 9.7% during August while trending at 9.9% during the past 12 months. Iowa (18.3%), Mississippi (44.4%), Ohio (14.4%), Pennsylvania (5.5%), and West Virginia (17.7%) reported growth rates exceeding their 12-month trends. Alabama (8.1%), Idaho (10.7%), Montgomery County Maryland (-5.8%), Maine (-0.2%), Michigan (15.1%), Montana (3.7%), North Carolina (9.8%), New Hampshire (-6.6%), Oregon (5.0%), Utah (-15.8%), Virginia (12.1%), Vermont (3.4%), and Wyoming (10.3%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their 12-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 12.0% year-to-date compared to 6.4% last year, NABCA said.
Price/Mix for August is 7.9%, slipping from July’s reported 9.3%.
Price/Mix has been tracked by NABCA since January 2002, and August’s 7.9% is the second-highest-Price/Mix value published. Price/Mix for May (5.9%), June (6.5%), July (9.3%), and August (7.9%) are the four highest values recorded in the control states.
An analysis of control state spirits prices suggests that historically high control state Price/Mix continues to be driven by premiumization. The weighted average, average, and median prices for 750 ML volumes of the 35,850 spirits SKUs sold in Alabama, Idaho, Montgomery County Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont during August were $16.91, $37.84, and $24.50, respectively.
This median price is the highest on record. A graph of median and weighted average prices suggests that volume sales skew toward value products in the control states, whereas a graph of the median and (non-weighted) average prices suggests product pricing in the control states skews to premium.
During March, April, May, June, and July the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. August is no exception. During the twelve-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly spirits share averaged 82%. During March 2020, the off-premise share jumped to 90%, during April to 99%, during May it retreated to 96%, during July it moderated to 89%, and during August it leveled off at 89%. Trends suggest the control state off-premise share for September will again be above historical levels as the on-premise marketplace continues its recovery.
Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was August’s fastest growing category with 34.8% reported and a twelve-month trend of 32.4%. Tequila, with 7% share, grew during August at 20.3% and 16.5% during the past 12 months. Vodka, with 34% share, grew during the same periods at -4.7% and 3.1%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(18.3% during August, 9.5% twelve-month trend), Cocktails (34.8%, 32.4%), and Tequila (20.3%, 16.5%) grew at rates above their twelve-month trends, while Canadian Whiskey (1.5%, 5.2%), Cordials (0.6%, 1.9%), Domestic Whiskey (4.9%, 9.9%), Gin (-4.4%, 1.0%), Irish Whiskey (1.1%, 4.5%), Rum (-4.7%, 1.2%), Scotch (-2.2%, 0.8%), and Vodka (-4.7%, 3.1%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.
August’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -4.3%. Pennsylvania (reporting -1.9% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-15.9%), Mississippi (31.5%), Utah (-23.1%), Montgomery County Maryland (-7.2%), and Wyoming (-0.2%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 1.1%, down from July’s reported 1.5%.