Control states nine-liter spirits case sales grew a record 17.9% in September sas shelf dollars surged 26.4%, also a record, over same period sales last year, the National Alcoholic Beverage Control Association reports.
Alabama (20.0%), Iowa (27.0%), Idaho (20.5%), Maine (26.7%), Michigan (31.0%), Mississippi (34.5%), Montana (28.8%), North Carolina (21.1%), New Hampshire (13.0%), Ohio (15.0%), Oregon (10.5%), Pennsylvania (7.3%), Virginia (12.8%), and Vermont (10%) reported monthly growth rates for September exceeding their 12-month trends.
The growth rates for Montgomery County Maryland (-1.5%), Utah (5.5%), West Virginia (5.4%), and Wyoming (6.2%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-12-month-volume growth, 6.9%, improved upon August’s reported 5.9%. Spirits volumes are growing 8.1% year-to-date compared to 3.8% a year ago.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 26.4% during September while trending at 11.5% during the past 12 months. Alabama (27.0%), Iowa (30.7%), Idaho (28.9%), Maine (32.1%), Michigan (46.0%), Mississippi (44.3%), Montana (36.4%), North Carolina (30.0%), New Hampshire (22.1%), Ohio (27.8%), Oregon (16.2%), Pennsylvania (12.1%), Virginia (20.8%), and Vermont (14.3%) reported growth rates exceeding their 12-month trends. Montgomery County Maryland (3.3%), Utah (8.0%), West Virginia (-2.4%), and Wyoming (7.3%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 13.6% year-to-date compared to 6.4% last year.
Price/Mix has been tracked by NABCA since January 2002, and September’s 8.5% is the second-highest Price/Mix published. Price/Mix for May (5.9%), June (6.5%), July (9.3%), August (7.9%), and September (8.5%) are the five highest values reported by the control states.
An analysis of control state spirits prices suggests that historically high control state Price/Mix continues to be driven by premiumization. The weighted average, average, and median prices for 750 ML volumes of the 35,705 spirits SKUs sold in Alabama, Idaho, Montgomery County Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont during September were $17.15, $37.76, and $24.87, respectively.
This median price, $24.87, is the highest on record. A graph of control state prices with their median and weighted average suggests volume sales skew toward value products in the control states, whereas a graph of prices with their median and (non-weighted) average prices suggests product pricing in the control states skews toward premium.
During March, April, May, June, July, and August the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. September is no exception. During the 12-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly spirits share averaged 82%. The off-premise monthly shares of the control state market during March-September were 90%, 99%, 96%, 90%, 89%, 89%, and 88%, respectively. This sequence suggests that after the on-premise marketplace was devastated by the arrival of COVID-19, it is slowly recovering, NABCA said. Trends suggest the control state off-premise share for October will be above historical levels as the recovery continues.