The initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. economy was widespread and affected people across all age groups and all states while the initial mortality impact targeted mostly older people in just a few states according to independent research by the U.S. Census Bureau.
During April 2020, the first full month of the pandemic, the United States experienced an additional 2.4 deaths per 10,000 individuals beyond predictions based on historical mortality trends. This was a 33% increase in all-cause national mortality — deaths caused directly or indirectly by the coronavirus.
There was a weak correlation between increased mortality rates and negative economic impact across states. There were states that experienced significant employment displacement but no additional mortality, for example. On the other hand, there were states that experienced large mortality impacts but modest economic impacts.
These additional deaths during the early days of the pandemic were highly concentrated in older age groups and in a few states.
Recent research examined the relationship between the pandemic’s mortality and economic impacts across different age groups and geography.
Economic Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a devastating loss of life but it has also devastated the nation’s economy. The share of the U.S. population 16 and older that was working part-time or full-time plunged 16% in April. Historical trends predicted a 61.3% ratio but it turned out to be 51.5%. This additional national decline was 9.9 per 100 individuals in April 2020
This measure closely tracks other possible measures of economic activity such as unemployment rate, percent of population with unemployment insurance claims, consumer spending, and small business employment.
Impacts Varied by Geography
Deaths caused directly or indirectly by COVID during the first full month of the pandemic were highly geographically concentrated. About half of all national excess deaths were in just two states: New York and New Jersey.
But the economic impact pattern was completely different because it was more geographically widespread. Every state, except for Wyoming, experienced a statistically significant decline in the employment-to-population ratio during that time.
The two states with the largest initial declines in employment — Nevada and Michigan — only accounted for about 7% of the national employment displacement.
There was a weak correlation between increased mortality rates and negative economic impact across states. There were states that experienced significant employment displacement but no additional mortality, for example. On the other hand, there were states that experienced large mortality impacts but modest economic impacts.
Different Patterns by Age
As with geography, job loss was more widespread than excess mortality across age groups.
In April 2020, excess mortality increased with age and was largest among the oldest age group. Individuals ages 85 and older represent only 3% of the total U.S. population ages 25 years and older but accounted for 34% of the overall excess mortality in the country.
On the other hand, employment displacement decreased with age. It was largest among the younger age group (ages 25 to 44) who make up only 39% of the U.S. population ages 25 and older but accounted for about half of the people 25 and older who lost their jobs nationwide.