During March nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 2.9% over same period sales last year despite a “monster” 17% comp, National Alcoholic Beverage Control Association reports.
Michigan (25.5%), Montana (16.8%), and Pennsylvania (11.2%) reported monthly growth rates for March exceeding their 12-month trends. Growth rates for Alabama (6.2%), Iowa (9.8%), Idaho (-5.9%), Montgomery County Maryland (-21.4%), Maine (7.9%), Mississippi (16.9%), North Carolina (-3.0%), New Hampshire (-31.7%), Ohio (0.2%), Oregon (-8.8%), Utah (-8.2%), Virginia (-5.3%), Vermont (-6.0%), West Virginia (-7.9%), and Wyoming (4.5%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-12-month-volume growth, 6.6%, slipped from February’s reported 7.7%. Spirits volumes are growing 4.2% year-to-date compared to 8.7% a year ago.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 12% during March while trending at 13.5% during the past 12 months. Iowa (17.1%), Maine (16.3%), Michigan (36.2%), Mississippi (28.7%), Montana (25.6%), Pennsylvania (19.5%), and Wyoming (12.8%) reported growth rates exceeding their 12-month trends. Alabama (13.3%), Idaho (3%), Montgomery County Maryland (-15%), North Carolina (7.2%), New Hampshire (-31.2%), Ohio (12.9%), Oregon (-1.2%), Utah (0.1%), Virginia (5.0%), Vermont (1.3%), and West Virginia (-1.3%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their 12-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 11.9% year-to-date compared to 10.8% last year.
Price/Mix for March is 9.1%, up from February’s reported 6.8%.
Premiumization continues to drive Price/Mix in the control states. March’s 9.1% reported Price/Mix is the second highest value ever reported. During March 2021, the median price of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set the retail price point was $24.98 (the second highest value recorded in the control states) and the weighted average price of 750 ML volumes was $17.85 (also the second highest value recorded). During last year’s March, these prices were $23.99 and $16.34, respectively.
During the period March 2020 through February of 2021, the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. However, during March the on-premise share of the control state market climbed to a value that is less than 4% below its historical March share, suggesting the on-premise marketplace recovery in the control states is strengthening, as would be expected, as COVID restrictions are lifted.
Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was March’s fastest growing category with 41.9% reported and a twelve-month trend of 44.0%. Tequila, with 8% share, grew during March at 40.5% and 23.9% during the past twelve months. Cordials, with 7% share, grew at 24.7% during March and 6.5% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -5.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
Cordials (24.7% during March, 6.5% during past twelve months), Irish Whiskey (10.9%, 5.5%), and Tequila (40.5%, 23.9%) grew at rates above their 12-month trends, while Brandy/Cognac (7.6%, 15.9%), Canadian Whiskey (1.8%, 6.8%), Cocktails (41.9%, 44.0%), Domestic Whiskey (-0.4%, 9.6%), Gin (-5.8%, -0.1%), Rum (-2.2%, 1.5%), Scotch (-8.6%, 0.5%), and Vodka (-5.5%, 0.6%) grew at rates below their 12-month trends.
March’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -14.5%. Pennsylvania (reporting -17.4% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-12.9%), Mississippi (-1.7%), Utah (-14.4%), Montgomery County Maryland (-13.3%), and Wyoming (-13.4%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-12-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 0.1%, down from February’s reported 3.0%.